Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. is a China-based airline company, principally engaged in the airline transportation of passengers and freight. The Company is also engaged in the provision of airline transportation related services. The Company operates its businesses in domestic, international, and Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan routes. (Source: MarketScreener)
Looking back after it floated its securities seven years ago, Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. (“Spring Airlines”/ the company) has rolled out its flight network which were not seven years ago. The proportion of flights from and to Shanghai reduces gradually, but at the same time the company’s profitability still maintains stable, showing that it has seen excessive returns.
Low costs have been the company’s core competitiveness, and it has established a unique expansion mechanism thanks to the drive of internal and external factors.
In 2016, with the centralized introduction of transport capacity, the company started its new expansion modes when the industry encountered bottlenecks. Thanks to low costs and strong operating capacity, the company sank its transport capacity at a reasonable cost, and witnessed a rapid improvement in taking-off and landing slots in multiple emerging cities.
When the COVID-19 ravaged the world, Spring Airlines shifted its operating edges into resources edges, and the company is expected to embrace three harvests.
The growth of its transport capacity in 2020 and 2021 registered 9.68% and 10.78%, respectively, far higher than the industry growth.
Spring Airlines’ growth of slots at airports with throughput of 20 million~50 million was 57.95% and that at airports with 10 millon~20 million throughput reached 38.93%, meanwhile, the slot growth of airports themselves was merely 8.38% and 16.53%, respectively. The company’s market share of high-quality slots has improved.
In the medium term, Spring Airlines is expected to embrace three harvests, mismatch of supply and demand, optimized international flight routes, and rising sales volume of slots, and the resources obtained earlier are expected to be realized.
Earnings forecast and investment recommendation
We hold that the company scales up before and after the COVID outbreaks. It still has huge potential to lift prices compared to its low-price strategy, and the company’s profitability may be underestimated.
Additionally, the company’s operating efficiency is better than the industry, and it is expected to take the lead to make profits as the COVID prevention and control picks up.
Deducting the dilution of stocks by private placement, we revised our earnings forecast and estimated its net income attributable to shareholders at CNY-2.00 billion in 2022, CNY 1.28 billion in 2023, and CNY 3.30 billion in 2024, and its EPS at CNY-2.18, CNY 1.40 and CNY 3.60, implying a P/E ratio to -23.5x, 36.6x, and 14.2x, respectively. Maintain “Buy”.
Uncertainties of policy; great fluctuations of oil price and exchange rate; macroeconomic growth stagnation; intensified competition; air crash, terrorist attack, wars, outbreaks of disease, and etc.
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